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ABSTRACT Protein structural fluctuations, measured by Debye‐Waller factors or B‐factors, are known to be closely associated with protein flexibility and function. Theoretical approaches have also been developed to predict B‐factor values, which reflect protein flexibility. Previous models have made significant strides in analyzing B‐factors by fitting experimental data. In this study, we propose a novel approach for B‐factor prediction using differential geometry theory, based on the assumption that the intrinsic properties of proteins reside on a family of low‐dimensional manifolds embedded within the high‐dimensional space of protein structures. By analyzing the mean and Gaussian curvatures of a set of low‐dimensional manifolds defined by kernel functions, we develop effective and robust multiscale differential geometry (mDG) models. Our mDG model demonstrates a 27% increase in accuracy compared to the classical Gaussian network model (GNM) in predicting B‐factors for a dataset of 364 proteins. Additionally, by incorporating both global and local protein features, we construct a highly effective machine‐learning model for the blind prediction of B‐factors. Extensive least‐squares approximations and machine learning‐based blind predictions validate the effectiveness of the mDG modeling approach for B‐factor predictions.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available March 15, 2026
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